According to revised data, Romania’s economy expanded by 1.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, compared with the initial estimate of 1.6%. Based on the Eurostat-harmonized methodology, GDP growth was also revised upward to 1.3% from 1.2%.
The upward revision mainly reflects stronger-than-expected private consumption, as well as continued—but more moderate—investment activity. In contrast, gross fixed capital formation was more subdued than initially estimated, reflecting the impact of tighter fiscal policy.
The construction and agriculture sectors made a significant contribution to sustaining growth, while the industrial sector also remained a positive contributor. Nevertheless, the overall economic momentum continues to be weak.
Despite the improved Q3 data, analysts expect that overall GDP growth for 2025 will remain low, close to or below 1%, with the performance in the final quarter considered decisive. A potential contraction in the last quarter could reinforce scenarios of a technical recession.
Looking ahead to 2026, Romania’s economic prospects are closely linked to the absorption of European funds from the Recovery and Structural Funds, as well as the gradual easing of fiscal constraints that currently weigh on economic activity.
